In the ongoing regional water politics between India, Pakistan, and China, a fresh controversy has emerged with Pakistan issuing a veiled threat about China potentially stopping the flow of the Brahmaputra river into India. However, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has swiftly and decisively dismissed this as another manufactured scare tactic from Islamabad.
The New Scare Narrative
The issue arose after Rana Ihsaan Afzal, a senior aide to Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, reportedly hinted that China could emulate India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by halting the Brahmaputra’s flow to India. This provocative statement appeared as Pakistan faces growing pressure following India’s decisive move to suspend the decades-old treaty governing Indus river waters between the two countries.
Pakistan’s suggestion seeks to create anxiety over India’s water security by raising the specter of upstream Chinese control over a vital river. Yet, this attempt to spin fear has been firmly rejected by Himanta Biswa Sarma, who called it a "manufactured threat" aimed at sowing confusion and distrust.
Facts Over Fear
In a detailed response on social media platform X, Sarma highlighted the factual hydrological realities of the Brahmaputra river. “What if China stops the Brahmaputra Water to India? Let’s dismantle this myth — not with fear, but with facts and national clarity,” he wrote.
The Brahmaputra originates from Tibet (China), but only about 30-35% of its total flow comes from Chinese territory, mainly through glacial melt and limited rainfall. The rest, a significant 65-70%, is generated within India due to heavy monsoon rains and contributions from multiple tributaries flowing through Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, Meghalaya, and surrounding regions.
A River That Grows Within India
Sarma emphasized that the Brahmaputra is primarily a rain-fed river system in India, which actually swells significantly after entering Indian territory, thanks to torrential monsoon rains and numerous tributaries such as the Subansiri, Lohit, Kameng, Manas, Dhansiri, and Kopili rivers.
This means that even if China were hypothetically to reduce water flow—something Sarma terms "unlikely" given no official Chinese threats or indications—it would have limited impact on the overall water volume reaching India. In fact, reduced upstream flow could help India manage the devastating annual floods in Assam, which displace hundreds of thousands and cause massive damage to livelihoods and infrastructure.
Context of the Indus Waters Treaty
This recent dialogue around river waters comes in the backdrop of India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty in April, following a terror attack in Pahalgam. The treaty governs the flow of six rivers from India to Pakistan, and India’s move has raised tensions in the region.
While India has taken a strong stance, Pakistan has repeatedly warned that water is a "red line" for its 240 million people and will not tolerate any compromise on this vital resource. Pakistan army chief Asim Munir reiterated that Pakistan would never accept Indian hegemony over water rights.
The Bigger Picture
Water diplomacy in South Asia is deeply intertwined with political and security issues. The Brahmaputra, flowing through three countries—China, India, and Bangladesh—is not just a lifeline for millions but also a potential flashpoint.
However, Himanta Biswa Sarma’s measured and fact-based response serves as a reminder that science and geography often override geopolitical fearmongering. It underscores the importance of understanding river systems in their entirety rather than reacting to incomplete or politically motivated narratives.
Conclusion
Pakistan’s latest attempt to create alarm about China’s role in the Brahmaputra’s flow appears more like political posturing than a grounded concern. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s response clears the air by focusing on hydrological facts and reassures India’s water security stance.
In a region where water is both a resource and a strategic asset, rational discourse and clarity are essential. The Brahmaputra’s story is one of natural abundance within India, rather than vulnerability to upstream control. As India charts its future water diplomacy, facts like these will remain crucial in countering misinformation and safeguarding national interests.
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